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Defence & the armed forces

They pledged 3.5% of GDP. The country spends 2.33%.

Two pledges, 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3.5% by 2035, against what the country actually spends and how many people are actually in uniform. For the first time in years, more joined than left.

Defence spending, share of GDP 2.33%
The 2035 pledge 3.5%
Full-time trained strength 126,740
More joined than left, by 980
The evidence

10 figures, each with its official source.

2.33%
Defence spending as a share of GDP

Up from 2.25% in 2023. NATO estimates 2.3% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026. The UK has met the 2% NATO target every year since it was introduced in 2006.

2.5%
The pledge for 2027

On the NATO definition, or 2.6% counting wider security and intelligence spending. Funded in large part by cutting overseas aid to 0.3% of national income, so this is a pledge paid for out of another budget.

3.5%
The pledge for 2035

The core-defence half of a 5% total, the other 1.5% being resilience and security. Getting from 2.33% to 3.5% is a larger sustained increase than anything since the Cold War, and no government has yet set out where the money comes from.

Government: UK to deliver on 5% NATO pledgeagreed at the 2025 NATO summit
Third
UK rank among NATO spenders

Behind the United States and Germany, at $84.2bn. Spending per person was $1,216, the highest since 1987, which is the honest counterweight to the idea that defence has simply been hollowed out.

126,740
Full-time trained strength

Up 130, or 0.1%, on a year earlier. Small, but it interrupts a decade of decline. Army 70,760, Royal Navy and Royal Marines 28,180, RAF 27,800.

70,760
Army trade-trained strength

The MoD no longer publishes a headline requirement figure beside this number, so the shortfall against what the Army says it needs cannot be stated precisely from the official release. It does say trained strength across all three services remains short of requirement.

14,370
People joining

Up 920, or 7%, on the previous twelve months.

13,390
People leaving

Down 1,190, or 8%. Recruitment rising while departures fall is the combination that actually grows an armed force, and it is the first time in years both moved the right way at once.

980
More joined than left, by

14,370 in against 13,390 out. At this rate, closing a shortfall measured in thousands takes many years, so the direction is right and the pace is not yet enough.

5.0%
Voluntary outflow rate

The share who chose to leave, as opposed to reaching the end of an engagement. Army 5.3%, Royal Navy and Royal Marines 4.9%, RAF 4.4%, and 6,060 people in total.