Record taxes, and pay that has barely moved since 2008.
Record taxes. £110bn a year on debt interest. Prices up 31% in five years, and your pay barely above where it was in 2008. The squeeze, in the government's own numbers.
9 figures, each with its official source.
The OBR says the projected 2030-31 level would be a historical high for the UK, almost 6% of GDP above pre-pandemic, a direct test of pledges not to raise taxes on working people. Measure: National Accounts taxes as a share of GDP.
Central government net debt interest, OBR measure (ONS's narrower accruals outturn for 2025-26 was £97.6bn). Up from £39bn in 2019-20; forecast to reach £137.1bn by 2030-31, money that cannot be spent on public services.
Levels last seen in the early 1960s, 0.4pp higher than a year earlier. Honest counterpoint: borrowing in 2025-26 fell to a provisional £128.0bn, £23.5bn less than the year before (revised down from the initial £132.0bn estimate); the fiscal rule requires net financial liabilities falling by 2029-30.
Inflation has genuinely eased (OBR expects 2.3% in 2026) but remains above the 2% target, and the price LEVEL is permanently ~31% higher than at the start of 2021 (CPI index 109.0 → 142.4). Falling inflation does not mean falling prices.
Annual food inflation is down to 2.2% (lowest since Dec 2024), but the level of food prices is ~40% above early 2021, outpacing overall CPI (+30.6%). Calculated from the official ONS index (103.4 → 144.3, 2015=100).
Eighteen years after the 2008 peak, real pay is under 4% higher, near-total stagnation by historical standards. Real regular pay growth was just 0.1% in the year to Feb–Apr 2026; the OBR expects only ~0.5%/yr real hourly earnings growth over the medium term.
Per-head growth strips out population growth. Modest growth has returned, but the OBR notes that had pre-2008 productivity trends continued, GDP per person would be ~30% higher today.
The government's no.1 mission is the highest sustained growth in the G7; the OBR instead CUT its 2026 forecast to 1.1% (after 1.4% in 2025), with 2027-30 averaging 1.6%. The OBR noted the Middle East conflict was escalating as it finalised the forecast and could have very significant impacts.
The Chancellor says 'living standards are up'. The OBR's own profile: real household disposable income per head growing ~0.3–0.5% a year, positive, but close to stagnation: roughly 2% in total across 2026–2030.